QuestionChancePolymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hHow the price moved today, in points.AI analystsThe average of the AI analysts' probabilities. Open a market to see each analyst's number.GapAI minus market, in points. A big gap is a lead to check.Smart money, Tiers 1–2How many of the topic's Tier 1 and Tier 2 traders hold Yes No: its ranks 1–50 by 3-month P&L, after removing bots, market makers and wash traders
Fed Decision in December?25 bps increaseEnds in 29d25 bps increase86%6.079%−719 Yes1 NoFed Decision in January?No changeEnds in 78dNo change52%27.052%05 Yes3 No2hTrump’s Fed nightmare: Rates won’t be slashed. They could surge nowSMH.com.auPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Ends in 51d14%22.027%+134 Yes4 No18mImpeachment Live Updates: House Reads Accusations Against Pete HegsethThe New York TimesNext Senate Majority Leader?Chuck Schumer$168.3K 24h volTradingChuck Schumer83%8.04 Yes2 NoUS imports Russian diesel by...?March 31Ends in 141dMarch 3113%11.513%00 Yes1 No1hTrump’s Plan to Import Russian Diesel Stalls on the High SeasWSJNext US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?December 31, 2026Ends in 51dDecember 31, 202638%1.539%+11 Yes0 NoWho will leave Trump Administration before 2027?Howard LutnickEnds in 51dHoward Lutnick25%2.522%−3none1hIt’s finding-out time again for Kash PatelDaily KosVenezuela leader end of 2026?Nicolás MaduroEnds in 51dNicolás Maduro92%2.086%−63 Yes1 No1hMachado returns to Caracas and believes in Venezuela’s 2027 elections — TIMEUA.NEWSNext Press Secretary announced by...?November 30Ends in 20dNovember 3041%4.033%−81 Yes3 NoUkraine agrees not to join NATO by...?December 31, 2027$59.1K 24h volEnds in 416dDecember 31, 202729%1.020%−9noneUkraine peace referendum scheduled by...?June 30, 2027Ends in 232dJune 30, 202724%2.022%−2noneUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?December 31Ends in 51dDecember 3133%1.028%−51 Yes1 NoWhere will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?ChinaEnds in 51dChina92%3.070%−223 Yes1 NoNext Press Secretary?Ben Ferguson$50.2K 24h volEnds in 416dBen Ferguson29%0.014%−15noneClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Ends in 51d2%1.14%+2none1hKevin O'Leary Says CLARITY Act Will Pass Next Year Out Of 'Economic Necessity'StocktwitsWhere will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?No Meeting by December 31$34.1K 24h volEnds in 50dNo Meeting by December 3162%2.558%−4noneFed Decision in March?25 bps increase$31.4K 24h volEnds in 127d25 bps increase55%17.033%−224 Yes0 NoWhere will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?No meeting before 2027Ends in 51dNo meeting before 202796%0.094%−23 Yes1 NoJensen Huang divorce by...?March 31, 2027Ends in 141dMarch 31, 202719%1.013%−6none1hJensen Huang’s affair exposes Silicon Valley’s national security powerLowy InstituteMarco Rubio out as Secretary of State by...?March 31, 2027Ends in 141dMarch 31, 202722%0.022%0noneIran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?December 31Ends in 51dDecember 3123%6.025%+20 Yes1 NoNext US Senate Minority Leader?John Thune$17.8K 24h volEnds in 53dJohn Thune>99%19.985%−141 Yes1 NoWhich of these people will be impeached first by the end of 2027?Pete Hegseth$15.8K 24h volEnds in 416dPete Hegseth55%28.060%+5noneWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Ends in 51d3%0.10 Yes7 No
