QuestionChancePolymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hHow the price moved today, in points.AI analystsThe average of the AI analysts' probabilities. Open a market to see each analyst's number.GapAI minus market, in points. A big gap is a lead to check.Smart money, Tiers 1–2How many of the topic's Tier 1 and Tier 2 traders hold Yes No: its ranks 1–50 by 3-month P&L, after removing bots, market makers and wash traders
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028J.D. Vance$1.1M 24h volEnds in 728dJ.D. Vance31%0.038%+74 Yes1 NoPresidential Election Winner 2028JD Vance$1M 24h volEnds in 728dJD Vance17%0.218%+13 Yes0 NoDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028Jon Ossoff$712K 24h volEnds in 728dJon Ossoff26%1.024%−24 Yes1 NoNewsom's Democratic nomination odds hit __ by December 31?↓ 10%$9.8K 24h volEnds in 51d↓ 10%59%24.555%−4noneDeSantis's Republican nomination odds hit __ by December 31?↓ 10%$8.3K 24h volEnds in 51d↓ 10%29%19.0noneWho will announce Presidential run before 2027?Rahm Emanuel$7.8K 24h volEnds in 51dRahm Emanuel27%2.928%+1noneWill AOC announce a run for Senate or President before 2028?President$5.5K 24h volEnds in 416dPresident51%5.550%−11 Yes1 NoWho will announce Presidential run before 2028?Pete Buttigieg$5.4K 24h volEnds in 416dPete Buttigieg98%3.594%−41 Yes0 No2028 presidential odds leader on November 30?Other (including Ossof)Ends in 20dOther (including Ossof)76%0.739%−37noneNext US president's age at inauguration?45+$4.6K 24h volEnds in 802d45+45%0.045%0noneWhich party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?Democratic$4.2K 24h volEnds in 728dDemocratic68%0.065%−30 Yes1 NoVance announces he won't run for President in 2028 this year?$3.4K 24h volEnds in 51d1%1.33%+20 Yes1 NoOssoff's Democratic nomination odds hit __ by December 31?↓ 20%$2.7K 24h volEnds in 51d↓ 20%55%2.5noneShapiro's Democratic nomination odds hit __ by December 31?↓ 4%$2.6K 24h volEnds in 51d↓ 4%52%2.0noneDemocratic 2028 presidential odds hit __ by March 31?↓ 60%$2.5K 24h volEnds in 141d↓ 60%37%0.032%−5none2028 Presidential Election: Minnesota WinnerDemocratic Party$2.4K 24h volEnds in 728dDemocratic Party84%3.5noneRubio's Republican nomination odds hit __ by December 31?↓ 15%$2K 24h volEnds in 51d↓ 15%50%20.5noneDemocratic VP Nominee 2028Rob Sand$2K 24h volEnds in 728dRob Sand18%2.06%−12none2028 Presidential Election: Pennsylvania WinnerDemocratic Party$1.7K 24h volEnds in 728dDemocratic Party64%6.5noneHarris's Democratic nomination odds hit __ by December 31?↑ 8%$1.7K 24h volEnds in 51d↑ 8%30%15.0noneVance's Republican nomination odds hit __ by December 31?↑ 40%$1.6K 24h volEnds in 51d↑ 40%28%0.50 Yes1 No2028 Presidential Election: Iowa WinnerRepublican Party$1.4K 24h volEnds in 728dRepublican Party70%3.5none2028 Presidential Election: Michigan WinnerDemocratic Party$1.3K 24h volEnds in 728dDemocratic Party69%0.564%−5noneNewsom flips Vance for 2028 president by March 31?$1.2K 24h volEnds in 141d31%6.5none
