QuestionChancePolymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hHow the price moved today, in points.AI analystsThe average of the AI analysts' probabilities. Open a market to see each analyst's number.GapAI minus market, in points. A big gap is a lead to check.Smart money, Tiers 1–2How many of the topic's Tier 1 and Tier 2 traders hold Yes No: its ranks 1–50 by 3-month P&L, after removing bots, market makers and wash traders
Next Senate Majority Leader?Chuck Schumer$168.3K 24h volTradingChuck Schumer83%8.04 Yes2 NoSpeaker of the House after the midterms?Hakeem Jeffries$30.2K 24h volTradingHakeem Jeffries95%1.01 Yes1 NoHow many U.S. reps vote to impeach Hegseth by December 31?No vote$29.8K 24h volEnds in 51dNo vote97%82.493%−4noneNext US Senate Minority Leader?John Thune$17.8K 24h volEnds in 53dJohn Thune>99%19.985%−141 Yes1 No2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of VictoryDemocrats 14-16%$15.9K 24h volTradingDemocrats 14-16%90%5.21 Yes1 NoHouse Minority Leader of the next Congress?Jim Jordan$11.4K 24h volTradingJim Jordan99%41.91 Yes0 NoH.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026?$7.1K 24h volEnds in 51d3%0.12%−10 Yes1 No2026 Midterms: House Turnout120-125m$5.1K 24h volTrading120-125m76%8.01 Yes0 NoGovernment shutdown by...?December 31$5K 24h volEnds in 51dDecember 3140%0.038%−2noneHow many Trump vetoes overridden by December 31, 2027?0$3.3K 24h volEnds in 416d047%8.0noneRepublican Senate seats after the midterms (Lower Brackets)44$2.8K 24h volTrading4499%0.34 Yes0 NoHegseth impeached and removed by...?March 31, 2027$1.7K 24h volEnds in 141dMarch 31, 202718%0.0noneTrump impeached and removed before 2028?$1.6K 24h volEnds in 416d18%0.33%−151 Yes0 NoDem sweep & US recession by end of 2027?Dem sweep; No recession$959 24h volEnds in 447dDem sweep; No recession75%35.8noneWhich bills will become law in 2026?Export-control chip security$955.6 24h volEnds in 51dExport-control chip security43%1.5noneKristi Noem impeached in 2026?$846.5 24h volEnds in 51d2%0.20 Yes1 NoDem sweep & Gas hits $4.50 by end of 2026?Dem sweep; No $4.50 gas$544.3 24h volEnds in 51dDem sweep; No $4.50 gas89%9.7noneHow many government shutdowns by December 31, 2027?1$500 24h volEnds in 416d137%0.0noneDem sweep & US stake in OpenAI or Anthropic by end of 2027?Dem sweep; No US stake$489.9 24h volEnds in 416dDem sweep; No US stake68%5.6noneDem sweep & Chinese AI model #1 by end of 2027?Dem sweep; China not #1$407 24h volEnds in 416dDem sweep; China not #161%10.8noneWill the Senate pass another reconciliation bill by...?$245.2 24h volEnds in 51d19%8.0noneWhich Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?Mark Warner$130.4 24h volEnds in 52dMark Warner5%0.74%−1noneWill Trump veto a bill by February 1, 2027?$129.6 24h volEnds in 83d52%1.5noneWill Trump be impeached before his term ends?$113.3 24h volEnds in 802d68%2.0none
